Tuesday Trends: 07/15/2025 - One Up or Let Down QB Edition

One Up or Let Down: Will These QBs Outdo 2024?

As the 2025 season approaches, all eyes are on the league’s top quarterbacks to see if they can build on their 2024 production — or if they’re destined to regress. Below is a look at some of the NFL’s biggest names, listed by their 2024 passing yardage, along with a projection: will they one up their totals, or let down fans with a step back?

• Joe Burrow — 4,918 yards: One Up ✅
  Burrow’s elite weapons and another year of health point to even more production.
• Jared Goff — 4,629 yards: Let Down ⬇️
  Detroit’s offense should stay strong, but slight regression seems likely.
• Baker Mayfield — 4,500 yards: One Up ✅
  Baker has found his rhythm and could build even more with continuity.
• Geno Smith — 4,320 yards: Let Down ⬇️
  The move to Vegas may his numbers dip temporarily.
• Sam Darnold — 4,319 yards: Let Down ⬇️
  Hard to see Darnold maintaining this level in 2025.
• Lamar Jackson — 4,172 yards: One Up ✅
  Lamar’s efficiency and weapons give him room to improve even more.
• Patrick Mahomes — 3,928 yards: One Up ✅
  A healthier supporting cast and new weapons should boost his numbers.
• Aaron Rodgers — 3,897 yards: Let Down ⬇️
  Age and injury risk make another near-4,000 season a tough ask.
• Justin Herbert — 3,870 yards: One Up ✅
  More health and offensive tweaks could unlock another level.
• Brock Purdy — 3,864 yards: One Up ✅
  Poised to take another step forward in Shanahan’s system.
• Kyler Murray — 3,851 yards: One Up ✅
  A full offseason and better weapons should help him climb.
• Bo Nix — 3,775 yards: Let Down ⬇️
  Rookie numbers were solid, but improvement might take time.
• Matthew Stafford — 3,762 yards: One Up ✅
  Still has enough left in the tank with young talent around him.
• Josh Allen — 3,731 yards: One Up ✅
  Buffalo remains his team, and his arm talent still shines.
• C.J. Stroud — 3,727 yards: One Up ✅
  Impressive rookie year, and he’s just scratching the surface.
• Jayden Daniels — 3,568 yards: One Up ✅
  Could become even more dynamic with another year of experience.
• Caleb Williams — 3,541 yards: One Up ✅
  As he settles into the NFL, his numbers should rise.
• Jordan Love — 3,389 yards: Let Down ⬇️
  Could plateau as defenses adjust.
• Jalen Hurts — 2,903 yards: One Up ✅
  Still capable of much more through the air in Philly’s offense.
• Tua Tagovailoa — 2,867 yards: One Up ✅
  If healthy, should see a bump in production.
• Russell Wilson — 2,482 yards: Let Down ⬇️
  Hard to project a bounce back at this stage.
• Bryce Young — 2,403 yards: One Up ✅
  Better support and experience should help him take a step forward.
• Drake Maye — 2,276 yards: One Up ✅
  Plenty of room to grow in his second year.

These projections reflect not just past performance, but also the circumstances and trajectories each QB faces heading into 2025. Some are ready to raise the bar — others may find last year was already their peak.